Huimin Zhuang’s (Graduate School of Engineering) paper has been accepted for International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction.
Congratulations!
Authors
Huimin Zhuang, Noriyuki Yasufuku, Kiyonobu Kasama, Ryohei Ishikura
Affiliation
Faculty of Engineering
Manuscript Title
Proposal of a comprehensive risk assessment model for cut slope considering long-term deterioration characteristics based on the concept of disaster immunity
Abstract
In Japan, the stability of cut slopes alongside expressways has deteriorated over time due to factors such as weathering, rendering them susceptible to significant collapses, especially during heavy rainfall. This study presents an evaluation model to assess the stability of cut slopes, with the aim of capturing their long-term deterioration characteristics using the logistic regression method. Additionally, to explore variations in deterioration patterns among cut slopes in diverse regions with varying geological compositions, a hierarchical Bayesian model is utilized to estimate parameters in the logistic regression model. This methodology enables the creation of a novel stability probability evaluation model for cut slopes that is adaptable to regions with different geological structures. Moreover, to comprehensively evaluate changes in the disaster resistance capabilities of extensively used cut slopes, the post-disaster recovery capabilities in the slope region are assessed through a comprehensive weighted evaluation method (EWM-TOPSIS). Building on this assessment, a novel, simplified, and more generalized resilience evaluation method is proposed. By integrating stability probability and resilience, an evaluation metric named “disaster immunity” is introduced to measure alterations in the disaster risk resistance of extensively utilized cut slopes. A case study is presented to illustrate the application of the evaluation model on selected cut slopes from various regions. This evaluation framework can assist road managers in predicting the disaster risk status of extensively used cut slopes and identifying priority slopes for implementing preventive measures to mitigate potential losses in the event of slope disasters.
Journal name
International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction
Relevant SDGs
SDGs 11 (SUSTAINABLE CITIES AND COMMUNITIES)
Comments
In this article, we first evaluated the stability of cut slopes along expressways based on their long-term deterioration. Then, we assessed the post-disaster resilience of the regions affected by potential highway disasters. Finally, we introduced the “disaster immunity” metric to comprehensively measure disaster risk, based on the stability of the slopes and the region’s resilience. A case study demonstrated the model’s application, helping road managers predict disaster risks and identify priority slopes for preventive measures. Thanks to SPRING’s research funding, this article is open access. If anyone is interested in this article, please engage in active discussions with us.
